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Fielded defense systems that fail to meet their reliability goals or requirements reduce the effectiveness and safety of the system and incur costs that generally require funds to be diverted from other defense needs. This is not a new problem, as readers of this report likely know. A synopsis of the relevant history is presented in the second section of this chapter. In recognition of this continuing problem, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) asked the National Research Council, through its Committee on National Statistics, to undertake a study on reliability. DoD originally asked the Panel on Reliability Growth Methods for Defense Systems to provide an assessment only of the use of reliability growth models to address a portion of the problem.

Reliability growth models are used to track the extent to which the reliability of a system in development is on a trajectory that is consistent with achieving the system requirement by the time of its anticipated promotion to full-rate production. However, the importance of the larger problem of the failure of defense systems to achieve required reliability levels resulted in the broadening of the panel’s charge.

The sponsor and the panel recognized that reliability growth is more than a set of statistical models applied to testing histories. Reliability is grown through development of reasonable requirements, through design, through engineering, and through testing. Arturia Single Pack The One Crack.

Thus, DoD broadened its charge to the panel to include recommendations. The present project on reliability growth methods is the latest in a series of studies at the National Research Council (NRC) on improving the statistical methods used in defense systems development and acquisition.

ANSI GEIA STD-0009-2008 Reliability Program Standard for Systems Design, Development and Manufacturing.

It features a public workshop with an agenda that will explore ways in which reliability growth processes (including design, testing, and management activities) and dedicated analysis models (including estimation, tracking, and prediction methodologies) can be used to improve the development and operational performance of defense systems. Through invited presentations and discussion, the workshop will characterize commonly used and potentially applicable reliability growth methods for their suitability to defense acquisition. The scope of the workshop and list of program participants will be developed by an expert ad hoc panel that will also write the final report that summarizes the findings of the workshop and provides recommendations to the U.S. Department of Defense.

In response, the panel examined the full process of design, testing, and analysis. We began with the requested workshop that featured DoD, contractor, academic, and commercial perspectives on the issue of reliability growth methods; see for the workshop agenda and list of participants. And, as noted in the charge, this report builds on previous work by the NRC’s Committee on National Statistics.

The procedures and techniques that can be applied during system design and development include system design techniques that explicitly address reliability and testing focused on reliability improvement. We also consider when and how reliability growth models can be used to assess and track system reliability during development and in the field.